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At first, the former US president gave the impression to take a strong position concerning Ukraine. Following issuing threats of "severe consequences" last August in case Russia's president persisted hindering peace negotiations, he eventually imposed major penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously impacted Putin's capability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, that was drafted by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or EU involvement, Trump has apparently returned to his pro-Putin approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's initiative would in practice favor Putin for invading Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in danger. Despite bold proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the initiative in reality undermine that essential independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, the former president seems to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple border issue, like handing Russia a section of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. But, Russia's military campaign is not merely about controlling a destroyed area of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear goal to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an attractive model for the Russian people of the accountable governance that his deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Border Concessions

While maintaining in status the already divided Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would force the nation to abandon all of Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a decade of fighting, this giveaway would render Ukraine's defenses dangerously undermined.

This region is the location of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established protective structures that constitute a critical obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Putin a open way to the capital if he later opt to restart the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would make renewed conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to reduce the numbers of its military from their present large number troops to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the plan imposes no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "Every extremist doctrine and activities must be rejected and forbidden." As if to underscore this point, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by allowing votes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated similar accords in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a restoration of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we trust Putin now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the plan promises a "strong joint armed reaction" if the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the details vary from fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine Nato membership but also prohibit member states from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Russia from replenishing his diminished military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

A separate supplementary accord according to sources would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "major, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. But in contrast to a capable national defense – Ukraine's best defense against renewed invasion – the success of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to react militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not